By the early 1990s, Washington state officials knew the full scope of the Northwest's earthquake menace.
It went from something like a magnitude 6.8 quake that shakes for up to 40 seconds...
...to something 2,000 times more powerful, a potential magnitude 9.0 quake that would shake for up to five minutes:
Since then, geologists have discovered more than two dozen faults across Washington.
Today, about 5.4 million people in Washington live in the zone endangered by a magnitude 9.0 Cascadia megaquake, an increase of 1.6 million since 1990, according to a Seattle Times analysis.3
BELLINGHAM
MOUNT VERNON
SEQUIM
EVERETT
LA PUSH
Areas of strong shaking or higher from a potential Cascadia quake
SEATTLE
Population increase in these areas:
1.6 million
(from 1990 to 2014)
+42%
SHELTON
OLYMPIA
OCEAN
SHORES
CENTRALIA
YAKIMA
LONGVIEW
Cascadia Subduction zone
Source: U.S. Geological Survey; U.S. Census Bureau
Yet Washington lags nearly all other quake-prone states in policies to reduce the risk, with, for example, no seismic-safety laws for schools, hospitals and other vulnerable buildings, according to a policy analysis this year.
Magnitude 9.0 earthquakes strike the Northwest about every five centuries. But some were only 200 years apart – and it's been 316 years since the last one.
The Big One will shake the entire Pacific Northwest for four to five minutes, longer than the five biggest quakes in Washington's recorded history combined. Communities will lose power and remain dark for weeks. Some 14,600 people could perish in Washington and Oregon, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
It's likely to be one of the worst disasters the United States has ever faced.
And it isn't the worst earthquake that threatens Seattle. The Northwest's biggest city lies above a different fault that could wreak more havoc locally than The Big One.
The number of people endangered by a magnitude 7.2 Seattle fault quake has increased by 1.2 million since 1990.
BELLINGHAM
MOUNT VERNON
Areas of strong shaking or higher from a potential Seattle quake
SEQUIM
LA PUSH
EVERETT
Population increase in these areas:
1.2 million
(from 1990 to 2014)
+40%
Seattle fault
SEATTLE
OLYMPIA
SHELTON
OCEAN
SHORES
Source: U.S. Geological Survey; U.S. Census Bureau
CENTRALIA
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