Special Report | More from our continuing series

SEISMIC NEGLECT

The earthquake nightmare public officials are failing to confront

Washington's biggest earthquakes over the past 150 years

By the early 1990s, Washington state officials knew the full scope of the Northwest's earthquake menace.

It went from something like a magnitude 6.8 quake that shakes for up to 40 seconds...

...to something 2,000 times more powerful, a potential magnitude 9.0 quake that would shake for up to five minutes:

Since then, geologists have discovered more than two dozen faults across Washington.

Today, about 5.4 million people in Washington live in the zone endangered by a magnitude 9.0 Cascadia megaquake, an increase of 1.6 million since 1990, according to a Seattle Times analysis.3

BELLINGHAM

MOUNT VERNON

SEQUIM

EVERETT

LA PUSH

Areas of strong shaking or higher from a potential Cascadia quake

SEATTLE

Population increase in these areas:

1.6 million

(from 1990 to 2014)


+42%

SHELTON

OLYMPIA

OCEAN

SHORES

CENTRALIA

YAKIMA

LONGVIEW

Cascadia Subduction zone

Source: U.S. Geological Survey; U.S. Census Bureau

Yet Washington lags nearly all other quake-prone states in policies to reduce the risk, with, for example, no seismic-safety laws for schools, hospitals and other vulnerable buildings, according to a policy analysis this year.

Magnitude 9.0 earthquakes strike the Northwest about every five centuries. But some were only 200 years apart – and it's been 316 years since the last one.

The Big One will shake the entire Pacific Northwest for four to five minutes, longer than the five biggest quakes in Washington's recorded history combined. Communities will lose power and remain dark for weeks. Some 14,600 people could perish in Washington and Oregon, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

It's likely to be one of the worst disasters the United States has ever faced.

And it isn't the worst earthquake that threatens Seattle. The Northwest's biggest city lies above a different fault that could wreak more havoc locally than The Big One.

The number of people endangered by a magnitude 7.2 Seattle fault quake has increased by 1.2 million since 1990.

BELLINGHAM

MOUNT VERNON

Areas of strong shaking or higher from a potential Seattle quake

SEQUIM

LA PUSH

EVERETT

Population increase in these areas:

1.2 million

(from 1990 to 2014)


+40%

Seattle fault

SEATTLE

OLYMPIA

SHELTON

OCEAN

SHORES

Source: U.S. Geological Survey; U.S. Census Bureau

 

CENTRALIA

Read the continuing series:

These columns supporting I-5 in Seattle are hollow and could implode in a severe earthquake, the state says. (Ellen M. Banner/The Seattle Times)
Don and Judy Stenberg stand in front of their Bellevue home. (Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)
Wrecked buses in rubble on the main street of Christchurch in 2011. (Simon Baker / Reuters)
Four-year-old preschoolers during an earthquake drill. (Tom Reese / The Seattle Times)
2001 Nisqually earthquake damage. (Tom Reese / The Seattle Times)
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